After a tough start to the season, we have certainly found our stride on the Road to 272 Bets. We've now posted three straight profitable weeks, including a magical Week 6, where we went 10-4 for +5.11 units.
That brings out season record back into the green at 49-42-1 for +4.47 units.
We'll do our best to keep our momentum going in Week 7. With only two teams on BYE this week, we have 15 games to place a bet on including a Monday Night Football double-header.
If you want to listen to the audio version of this, including some more in-depth analysis, check out the latest episode of Bacon Bets wherever you get your podcasts. The video version of the podcast is posted below.
As always, I'll follow the rules and guidelines that I laid out ahead of the opening week. It's time to dive into my best bet for every single Week 7 game.
Teams on a BYE in Week 7:Chicago BearsDallas CowboysNFL Week 7 Bets for Every GameBroncos vs. Saints Prediction
Spencer Rattler had a solid first game as an NFL rookie quarterback, filling in for Derek Carr last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Now, in what will likely be his second start, Rattler will have to face one of the most elite defenses in the NFL in the Denver Broncos on a short week. That's a nightmare situation for the Saints' offense.
It's tough to trust the Broncos' offense as well, but they may not need to score much to get the win and cover on Thursday Night Football.
It's worth noting the Saints rank dead last in Net Yards per Play over each team's last three games at -1.9. The hot start to the season for New Orleans seems like a lifetime ago.
Patriots vs. Jaguars Prediction
The Jaguars are starting to look like a picture-perfect "Over" team this season. A lot of the blame for their 1-5 record this season has fallen on their offense, but the Jaguars rank around the middle of the pack in most offensive metrics including 15th in yards per play (5.5). The real issue with Jacksonville has been its defense.
The Jaguars are 30th in opponent yards per play (6.0), 31st in opponent points per game (29.7), and dead last in opponent EPA per play (.175). Any game involving that poor of a defense, especially one that also has a competent offense, shouldn't have a total as low as 43.
Drake Maye looked solid in his rookie debut and the Patriots' offense already has more life than they did under Jacoby Brissett. He should find success against a much weaker defense this week and will do enough to contribute to this total going OVER 43 points.
Titans vs. Bills Prediction
The Titans' defense may be the least talked about and most underrated unit in the entire NFL right now. They lead the NFL in opponent success rate (36.2%) while also allowing the fewest yards per play (4.3) but yet they're underdogs of over a touchdown against an inconsistent Bills team.
Sure, the Tennessee offense is bad, but with how dominant their defense has been, I wouldn't feel comfortable laying this many points on any team against them. As we've seen in the past if a team can slow down the Bills' pass attack, which the Titans certainly can, things start getting hairy for Buffalo.
I'll take the points with the Titans.
Dolphins vs. Colts Prediction
This game looks like it's going to be a meeting between Tyler Huntley and Anthony Richardson, which leads me to think this will be a low-scoring affair. Amongst all quarterbacks who have played at least 60 snaps this season, Huntley and Richardson rank 34th and 35th out of 36 quarterbacks in EPA + CPOE composite. The only quarterback who ranks worse than those two is Bryce Young, who hasn't played a snap since Week 2.
Unless these teams get their run game going in a big way, I'd be surprised to see the combined score anywhere near 44 points.
Lions vs. Vikings Prediction
I'm still trying to figure out just how good this Vikings team is. There's no denying what they've done this season is impressive and they are certainly worthy of being penciled into the postseason, but have they done enough to be two-point favorites to arguably the best team in the NFC? I'm not quite ready to say that.
As elite as their defense has been, the Vikings offense has been average by most measures. They're 15th in yards per play (5.5) and 14th in EPA per play. An average offensive performance in this game may not be enough to keep pace with the Lions' offense.
I'm going to take the two points with Detroit in what should be a close duel in the NFC North.
Bengals vs. Browns Prediction
I am committed to not betting on the Cleveland Browns while Deshaun Watson is their quarterback. Despite that strategy not working in my favor in Week 6 against the Eagles, I'm going to continue doing it this week. Watson is 35th amongst quarterbacks in the NFL this season in adjusted EPA per play with only Bryce Young ranking worse. Their offense as a whole averages only 3.9 yards per play, 0.4 less than the next worst team.
Say what you will about the Bengals' defense, but their offense is likely going to put up some points. They're fourth in the league in EPA per play and Joe Burrow should be able to do damage against a Browns' secondary that ranks 19th in opponent EPA per dropback and 21st in opponent yards per pass attempt (6.8).
I don't think the Browns can keep pace in this game. I'll take the Bengals to win and cover.
Texans vs. Packers Prediction
The Texans are 4-1 with a couple of impressive wins including a victory over the Bills, but I'm still not convinced how good this team truly is. They've benefited from a relatively easy schedule to start the season with wins over the Patriots, Jaguars, Colts, and a Bears team before their offense started clicking.
Despite that schedule, their offense is just 16th in the NFL in EPA per play and their defense is 10th in opponent EPA per play. They're still a young team that's going to have some hiccups along the way and I think one will come this weekend against a Packers team that seems to be firing on all cylinders.
Not only does Green Bay outrank them in most metrics, including EPA on both sides of the football, but Jordan Love has certainly found his stride after returning from injury. On their home field, they're going to be a tough challenge for any team to face.
I'll lay the field goal with Green Bay.
Seahawks vs. Falcons Prediction
This looks like a perfect buy-low spot on Seattle and sell-high spot on Atlanta. Sure, the Seahawks aren't as good as they looked in their first three games of the season, but they aren't as bad as they've looked in their last three.
The Falcons defense has some issues. Despite being able to make strong halftime adjustments in recent weeks, they still rank in the bottom half of most metrics including 31st in the NFL in third down conversion rate, allowing opponents to convert 48.1% of third downs against them.
I don't have an issue with the Falcons being favored in this game, but a field goal is too rich for me to lay the points on the Dirty Birds. The Seahawks' offense is good enough to keep pace in Atlanta and I envision this being yet another Falcons game that comes down to the final drive. For that reason, I'll take the field goal with Seattle.
Eagles vs. Giants Prediction
The X-Factor for any game involving the Giants this season is going to be their pass-rush. Despite issues in a lot of areas on this roster, the Giants lead the NFL in sack percentage, bringing down opposing quarterbacks on 12.32% of their dropbacks.
That could prove to be a challenge for an Eagles offensive line that has allowed a pressure rate of 22.5% while allowing Jalen Hurts to be sacked 2.8 times per game. That's going to prove to make it difficult for the Eagles to move the ball throughout this game.
It's also worth noting both teams have struggled getting in the end zone when they have the ball deep in their opponent's territories. They're tied for 25th in the NFL in red zone touchdown scoring percentage, scoring a touchdown just 44.44% of the time they get in the red zone.
I'll take the UNDER in this NFC East showdown.
Panthers vs. Commanders Prediction
For me to lay more than a touchdown on any team in the NFL, they have to be better on both sides of the football. That is unfortunately not true for the Washington Commanders. Yes, their offense is leagues above the Panthers, but their defense is 29th in opponent EPA per play, only one spot above the Panthers. The Panthers also allow fewer yards per play (5.9) compared to Washington's defense (6.0).
The Panthers have also found some level of consistency with their run game this season. They currently rank ninth in yards per carry and now they get to face a Commanders run defense that has allowed 5.0 yards per carry, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.
It's an ugly bet, but I'll take the points with Carolina.
Raiders vs. Rams Prediction
The Rams are still being evaluated by the betting market like they're a much better team than they are, so I'm going to take a shot on betting on the Raiders to win as underdogs at +205.
Let's not forget the injury issues the Rams are dealing with. Puka Nacua and Steve Avila won't return to action this week and Joe Noteboom is still questionable. They remain one of the most injured teams in the league and their metrics to date don't give me confidence they can start winning games. They're 30th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play (-1.1), 17th in EPA per play, and 31st in opponent EPA per play.
The Raiders outrank them in virtually every single metric, including the three listed above, and in my opinion, shouldn't be this big of an underdog against a banged-up and underperforming Los Angeles squad.
Chiefs vs. 49ers Prediction
The biggest advantage the Chiefs would have in this game is the fact they're coming off a BYE, but with the 49ers taking care of business on Thursday night, they're coming off a mini BYE week of their own.
Kansas City, despite being undefeated, hasn't played nearly as well as their record indicates. They're 10th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play (+0.4), 10th in EPA per play, and 12th in opponent EPA per play.
The 49ers stumbled at times to start the year but they've shown they've found their stride as they usually do during this part of the season. They've worked their way up to now ranking third in the NFL in Net Yards per Play (+1.1) this season and first (+2.2) over each team's last three games.
San Francisco gets its Super Bowl revenge on Sunday.
Jets vs. Steelers Prediction
If you have to give credit to the Steelers for continuously finding ways to win games, but eventually their level of play is going to catch up to them. They're just 20th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at -0.2, well below the Jets who arguably outplayed the Bills on Monday night.
Pittsburgh's offense ranks well in the bottom half in every metric including 25th in yards per play (4.8), and now they have to take on one of the elite defensive units in the NFL in the Jets.
It's time for the Jets to find some momentum this season and I think they can do that against a Steelers team that's been playing above their skill level.
Ravens vs. Buccaneers Prediction
This is a tough stylistic matchup for the Ravens. They boast the best run defense in the NFL, but their secondary leaves a lot to be desired. They allow 7.5 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 26th in the league, while also ranking 27th in opponent dropback EPA and 23rd in opponent dropback success rate.
That means that a team that doesn't rely on their run game, but instead thrives with throwing the ball, is going to be a hard offense for Baltimore to stop. Unfortunately for them, that's exactly what the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are.
The Bucs haven't been able to run the ball well this season, but they rank near the top of the league in most passing statistics including first in dropback success rate. Baker Mayfield is having the best season of his career and their deep receiving core can attack weak secondaries early and often throughout the game.
Tampa Bay is going to be able to hang in this game, if not win it outright.
Chargers vs. Cardinals Prediction
The Chargers have had a tough stretch of games against great defenses, playing the Steelers, Chiefs, and Broncos. Now, their offense has a chance to break out in a game against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Cardinals.
Speaking of defenses, the Chargers have been one of the best in the NFL. No team has scored more than 20 points against this unit so far this season. They're allowing an average of just 13.2 points per game, the fewest in the NFL. They also rank fourth in opponent yards per play, second in opponent EPA per play, and third in opponent success rate.
This is a great matchup for the Chargers and this could be a breakout game for them, a wake-up call for the rest of the league to start taking them seriously.
